Generally speaking, how long can I leave Manjaro un-updated and still expect the system to not break when I eventually do?
You should never leave a rolling-release distro un-updated. It might cause security issues and system breakage at any moment.
Stability of Manjaro un-updated <= Heisenberg’s uncertainty
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There is no answer to this question.
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If you are someone who can navigate ‘bumps in the road’ like manually installing needed keyrings and such … then you can probably wait months or more.
But it is not advisable at all.
For example - running an outdated browser is a real security concern. Also your ability to install new software will become increasingly diminished, or even destabilizing to your running system. And so on.
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