I think trying to clone the system would be unreliable with new and different hardware…
My plan, when I rebuilt, was to firstly waste a couple of days making sure I’d got some lists - specifically I regularly update my package list:
➤ pacman -Qqet | grep -v "$(pacman -Qqg)" | grep -v "$(pacman -Qqm)" > ~/Dropbox/pkglist.txt
Then I dive into my 'Arr stack (Sonarr etc) and make sure I have stuff worked out with that, I create a temporary text file (again in backups) with various keys and passwords I’m going to want to work through.
Whilst it might be worth taking and trying a clone, make sure you’re prepared for the worst disasters.
Chrooting…
Then on the new laptop, you’ll end up booting from LiveUSB, mounting the SSD’s root partition and use manjaro-chroot; then you can install an appropriate kernel, install drivers (mesa for AMD/Intel) and update the bootloader, regenerate initramfs…
nVidia would possibly complicate things…
I’m just not sure about nVidia, the name gives me the heebie jeebies so I won’t discuss it further.
So yes, as an experiment - try the clone. But really, it’s likely not going to be as painful as you think if you have a full backup and snapshot to work from…
Fresh install takes only 5 minutes, then hopefully you’ll spend not more than an hour or two getting it 98% up to your expectations - with maybe a few days clearing out little bugs you left behind (like old scripts that need new vectors for hardware - conky was my main one).
I’d say piece of mind dictates a clean install, then migrate config files /home and specific /etc files and package lists.
I’m surprised that you mention copying your entire HDD… this means a bit of new configuration work - as HDD is the cheaper but MUCH slower storage…
So I’d be setting up my /home (as I do now) with different default locations for common folders (I have 250GiB SATA SSD, hoping to have spare cash to throw in a 1TB next year) to keep it at a reasonable ratio (I like 66% to 75% full).
So Music/Videos and Pictures folder remapped to /mnt/W4 (newest HDD).